Opinion: Short preview of August primary

There are two reasons why making any meaningful predictions for the Michigan primary is difficult. This year there is a third reason.

First, we usually have a very low turnout, about 20 percent or less for most primary elections. For that reason a slight increase or decrease in turnout will change the results of the election greatly. An often heard axiom for many elections is "turnout matters." That is especially important for primary elections in Michigan.

Second, Michigan has an open primary, where there is no requirement to register with a party. That means that voters can change which party they support at the last minute and independent voters could vote in the primary of either party. That fact could be particularly important for at least two gubernatorial candidates this year.

Third, the interest in this year's primary seems particularly low. With less money available for advertising there have been fewer ads than usual on the media (though it is starting to pick up in this last week).  In addition, none of the candidates for governor have been particularly electrifying. So there are lots of undecided voters even at this late date. As many as 60 percent of Democrats and about a third of Republicans, may still be undecided. With that many undecided, most polls don't mean much.

So, with all this in mind, here are a few things to look for next Tuesday for at least some of the races on the ballot.

To replace term-limited Jennifer Granholm, the Democrats have a choice between State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virgil Bernero. With most of the union endorsements behind him, Bernero should normally have the edge. The big question is whether the unions will be able to deliver for him, as they have in the past. Bernero is also pro-choice on the abortion issue and Dillon is not, and pro-choice groups have endorsed Bernero.

Dillon, who has offended much (but not all) of organized labor with several of his positions and past connections, has been leading in most polls. Yet a huge number of Democrats remain undecided. Dillon hopes to be able to tap into independent voters and maybe a few Republicans.

Republicans have a much larger field and most of them have a plausible shot at the nomination.

Pete Hoekstra, the west Michigan congressman, has been ahead in many polls, but can he reach out beyond western Michigan and get the Detroit suburban vote?

Attorney General Mike Cox has been hammering Hoekstra hard in some very effective TV ads and my hunch is that he is probably the front runner. He has been endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan. But will the rumors about the Kwame's Manoogian Mansion party hurt him in Southeast Michigan?

Rick Snyder, the Ann Arbor entrepreneur, has been able to self-fund most of his campaign and that has given him an early advantage. But he is looked on with some suspicion by some social conservatives and Tea Party Republicans. Like Dillon, Snyder hopes to bring in some independents and perhaps some Democratic supporters.

Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard has been making the anti-union "right to work" theme a major part of his campaign. That may sell well with the Mackinac Center Republicans, but even some traditional Republican business supporters have doubts about his approach.  In a strong union state it may not sell well, but in a close five-man race, you never know.

State Sen. Tom George has, by most estimates, done a fine job in debates and presenting his positions, but is clearly trailing the pack in both fundraising and support. He's the longest of long shots.

Locally, the race to replace term-limited Deb Cherry in the 26th Senate district in eastern Genesee County is going to be big. Democrats Jim Slezak and Paula Zelenko are the major contenders. Slezak, a one-term state representative, is a dynamic but fairly new face on the local political horizon, and Zelenko has extensive experience at both the local and state level. Both are putting on substantial campaigns.

Republican Dave Robertson is the most likely nominee for his party, though Grand Blanc Mayor Mike Matheny may give him some competition.  In the fall, this will be one of the most contested races in the county.

One of the hottest countywide races is the contest for Genesee County treasurer. Historically the treasurer has been a rather invisible position, but Dan Kildee's use of the position to develop the Genesee County Land Bank has made it a major player in Genesee County.

Both Sen. Deb Cherry and Rep. Lee Gonzales are term-limited and running to replace Kildee. The contest has divided many local Democrats as both are well known and respected in the party. In the end, Cherry probably has the edge because of her name recognition.

Beyond the candidates, there are several important financial issues on the ballot. Given the economy, none of them are a slam dunk.

The Flint schools are asking for a 4 mill increase to support a sinking fund which would be used to repair and maintain the school buildings. Normally, school issues find strong support in Flint, but recent controversy with the school board and the size of the increase may be a problem.

The Flint Public Library also usually finds wide support for its millage requests, and that may be the outcome this time. But the library has combined both a renewal and an increase in the same package. That all-or-nothing proposal might also prove to be a gamble.

The Mass Transit Authority (MTA) is requesting a renewal of its millage and generally renewals are a lot easier to sell than increases.

This is an all too short review of only a few of the important races coming up next week. There are several other state representative races and a very competitive race for district judge in the 67th district (Genesee County outside Flint). County commissioners are also up for re-election this year and there are strong challenges in several areas. Some townships have election contests and other local communities also have bond issues or millages.

For a full review of all the races and issues, go to the League of Women Voters website at www.lwvflintare.org and check out their Voter's Guide.

In any case, be sure to vote on Aug. 3.

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Paul Rozycki is a professor of political science at Mott Community College. He has lived in Flint since 1969 and has been involved with and observed Flint politics for many years. He is author of Politics and Government in Michigan (with Jim Hanley) and A Clearer Image: The History of Mott Community College.