By Paul Rozycki
You thought this was going to be a dull election year with a Biden/Trump rematch? It sure doesn’t look like it.
In just the last month we’ve seen:
- A fumbling debate by the president of the United States;
- A Supreme Court ruling that limits the prosecution of the previous president and grants immunity from criminal prosecution to a president performing “official duties;”
- A federal judge dismissing charges against Trump for mishandling classified documents;
- An assassination attempt against a presidential candidate, generating an already iconic photograph of him bleeding and raising his fist as he’s led off the stage;
- An energized Republican National Convention that nominated Donald Trump, now a convicted felon, and a vice presidential nominee who once labeled Trump “America’s Hitler” but now supports him completely;
- Democrats deeply depressed as the mid-summer polls suggest a likely Trump victory in November as Biden trailed in most key states;
- Calls from Democratic leaders for Biden to step down as the party’s nominee as doubts about his ability to conduct a successful campaign surged and Democrats feared losses in both houses of Congress;
- A president who has the nomination assured step down and endorse his vice president for the presidential bid; and
- Vice President Kamala Harris emerge as the all-but-certain nominee of the Democratic Party, with record donations, more endorsements and enthusiasm following.
It’s only the end of July and the Democratic convention and final campaign pushes still ahead. So, what does this all mean?
While it’s clearly not a good year to make any predictions, with that risk in mind, here’s a few:
The Biden legacy
By stepping aside as he did, Biden will give the public an opportunity to view his legacy in a more objective manner. And there is much he can be proud of.
He led the nation through the worst times of the COVID pandemic, saw the economy rebound to record heights for the stock market, historically low unemployment rates, and avoided the recession that many expected after the pandemic. Even inflation, a major problem in recent years, has been coming down to more normal levels.
In the final analysis, Biden said it best when he announced that he was stepping down and passing the torch to Harris: “The best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation.”
He was praised by many in his party for his patriotic and difficult decision.
The Harris candidacy and advantages
At this point it seems all but certain that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, though it’s not official yet.
In terms of Harris’ advantages, a major one is that her candidacy has energized the Democratic Party almost overnight.
Young voters and minority voters who expressed lukewarm support for 81-year-old Biden now seem newly motivated for the campaign, and Democrats who feared a Trump landslide after the events of the past month now feel they have a fighting chance in a competitive election. Plus, nearly all the leading Democratic officials have stepped forward to endorse Harris.
In Michigan, Democratic Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters have come forward to support her, as has Governor Gretchen Whitmer, 8th District Congressman Dan Kildee, and the Genesee County Democratic Party. Ashley Prew, chair of the county party, said she plans to attend the Democratic convention in Chicago and vote for Kamala Harris.
Vice President Kamala Harris on her visit to Flint, Mich. on Sept. 22, 2020. (Photo by Paul Rozycki)
Right after Biden’s announcement, fundraising for the campaign broke records, surpassing $100 million within a few days.
Another possible advantage to Harris’ candidacy: a major issue she managed as vice president was to advocate for a woman’s right to choose after Roe v. Wade was overturned two years ago. That has proven to be one of the Democrats’ strongest campaign issues, even in traditionally Republican states, and Harris’ candidacy will make abortion a central issue for the 2024 campaign.
In one of her first statements after Biden’s announcement, Harris said, “this election will present a clear choice between two different visions. Donald Trump wants to take our country back to a time before many of us had full freedoms and equal rights. I believe in a future that strengthens our democracy, protects reproductive freedom and ensures every person has the opportunity to not just get by, but to get ahead.”
Additionally, as a candidate who is 20 years younger than Donald Trump, Harris can campaign against his being the oldest nominee of a major party, denying Trump the ability to use age as an issue (as he had against Biden).
In debates during her former presidential bid in 2019, Haris proved to be a strong debater and her skills as a prosecutor showed. One can expect that she will hold her own in any debate with Donald Trump.
As a past prosecutor and California Attorney General, she will also be able to campaign on the “law and order” issue better than many Democrats, and the first minority woman to be nominated for the presidency by a major party, she will likely rally support from African-American, Hispanic and Asian voters who had been drifting away from Biden. She may even fare better among suburban women, who often lean Republican, but are less than enthused about Trump.
Harris’ disadvantages
For all the energy and excitement over Harris’ potential nomination, it’s still going to be a very competitive race.
As vice president she is a part of the previous administration at a time when anti-incumbent fever is strong. And, though the situation has improved greatly in the last few months, Harris will also be blamed for all the problems of the last four years at the southern border.
Further, she will be blamed for any other problems that emerged during the Biden administration, such as inflation, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and the pull out from Afghanistan, among others. And Trump will certainly find a snarky nickname for her — he’s already testing “Laughing Kamala” to less-than-favorable reviews.
I recently spoke with a friend, an African-American woman, who was very worried that Harris would face what she called the “Obama rejection.” She said she was concerned that the nation might not be ready for a minority woman in the White House and felt it was the reaction against an African American president (and the prospect of a female president) that gave Trump the victory in 2016.
Another friend was concerned about the last-minute shift to Harris and said in some frustration “now primaries don’t matter.” He said he felt that Harris was being anointed by the elites of the party and that his voice was being ignored.
Aside from these potentially shared feelings among the greater public, Harris’ vice presidential experience may, however strangely, also work against her.
While being vice president has often been a good way to get nominated for president, in the last century, only one vice president has moved directly from that position to be elected president, George H.W. Bush, who served as Reagan’s VP.
Choosing a vice president
For all the speculation from pundits about who Harris might pick as her vice president, history shows that vice presidential choices usually don’t have much impact on the election. Though there are some exceptions.
While VP choices don’t typically help a candidate, a bad one can hurt. (Just consider John McCain and Sarah Palin.) And in a close election like this one even a few points can make a difference. The most likely choice—a white, male, moderate governor of a swing state. Early guesses say that white man may be Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper, Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro, Governor of Kentucky Andy Bashear, and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, among others.
What lies ahead?
We will see if the energy and excitement over Kamala Harris’ nomination translates into a boost in the polls and votes in November.
She has said that she will “work to earn the nomination,” and she needs to give as much voice as needed to those who are upset with the last-minute shift to bring them on board and unite the party.
Early indications are that she is doing just that and, so far, the dissenting voices are few. The Democratic convention in Chicago on in mid-August will give her a chance to unite the party and set the tone for the fall campaign.
Many early polls showed that a significant number of voters were unhappy with both candidates when Biden and Trump seemed on track for a rematch. Harris’ nomination changes that and she has the opportunity to reach out to those voters. That could make all the difference.
If her first campaign rally in Wisconsin this week is any sign of the future, it suggests that the energy and enthusiasm will continue.
“Over the next few months, I will be traveling across the country talking to Americans about everything that is on the line,” she said of her goals in the campaign and election ahead. “I fully intend to unite our party, unite our nation, and defeat Donald Trump in November.”
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