By Paul Rozycki
In the November 2024 election, former President Donald Trump won a second term, taking both the Electoral College and the popular vote. It was only the second time that Republicans have won the popular vote since 1988.
What does it mean when a nation elects a convicted felon who promises to be a dictator and arrest his enemies; claims Haitians are eating pet cats and dogs and wind farms cause cancer; and says he will “protect women whether they like it or not”? I can’t say for certain. But I can break down 10 reasons Trump’s campaign came away victorious.
First, Trump increased his winning margins in traditionally Republican rural areas, doing better than he did in his 2020 bid. Yet, surprisingly he also boosted his margin in urban areas as well.
Second, Vice President Kamala Harris did slightly worse than Joe Biden did in 2020 in traditionally Democratic urban areas, seeing an 8 point move to Trump compared to 2020. A number of traditional Democratic groups turned out at lower than expected rates.
Third, the old James Carville maxim of “It’s the economy, stupid” worked against Harris, as did Trump’s campaign trail question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” In many ways the economy is in good shape. The stock market has seen record levels, jobs are available, and the economy is growing. But inflation is an issue that hits everyone when they go to the grocery store or the gas station, and as an incumbent vice president, Harris was blamed for the “poor economy” in spite of all the good news.
Fourth, issues that would have been fatal to other candidates had no significant impact on the polls. Trump insulted women, Hispanic people, disabled people, and veterans; was convicted of 34 felonies; paid hush money to a porn star; and threatened reporters and those who opposed him with violence, but none of it seemed to hurt his candidacy in the voting booth.
Fifth, the abortion issue that was so powerful for Democrats in the 2022 midterm seemed to have less impact this election. Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a number of states moved to protect the right to abortion, and some Republicans have tried to distance themselves from an absolute anti-abortion stance. Of those voters who said abortion should be legal in most cases, the vote split 49-49 in November. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats won those same voters with a 60-38 margin.
Sixth, the gender gap, where women are about 10% more Democratic than men, didn’t grow larger as Harris became the Democratic nominee. In particular, suburban Republican women, who many thought would shift to Harris, didn’t do so in the expected numbers. The vice president’s margin among women was only 8 points, the smallest since 2004. On the other hand, Trump made specific appeals to motivate young male voters.
Seventh, minority voters, who have long been a critical part of the Democratic Party, didn’t turn out in the numbers expected for the first minority woman presidential candidate. Young Black and Hispanic males still voted Democratic but saw a larger than usual fraction of their votes go to Trump. Exit polls showed that Trump won 46 percent of the Latino vote, the highest in half a century.
Eighth, in Michigan, the dissatisfaction over the Biden administration’s support of Israel cost the Democrats their traditional support among Arab Americans. Early results showed Harris winning only 36 percent of the vote in Dearborn, while Biden won 68 percent four years ago. Those results showed Trump winning Dearborn by 6 points, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein was pulling 18 percent.
Ninth, as an incumbent vice-president, Harris was facing an anti-incumbent electorate, skeptical of all current officeholders. She got the blame for anything anyone didn’t like about the Biden administration – such as immigration policy, the economy, and foreign crises. Voters who said they didn’t like either candidate gave Trump a 26 point margin. Historically vice presidents often have an easy time winning their party nomination but rarely get elected. Some voters objected to the fact that Harris didn’t go through the primaries to win the nomination, as well.
Tenth, the Blue Wall – those union, industrial, states that were supposed to belong to Democrats – crumbled. In 2020, Biden carried Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In 2024, Trump won all of them. In five swing states where there were races for the U.S. Senate, Harris underperformed the Democratic Senate candidates by almost 4 points. Those results suggest a possible realignment of the two parties as Republicans pick up increasing numbers of working class voters, and Democrats find increasing support among college graduates.
So, while I can’t be sure what it means that America has chosen Trump, there are some explanations for his victory. As for what happens next, with a Republican Senate, a possible Republican House, a Supreme Court with Trump appointed justices, and Project 2025, there will be much to watch.
This article also appears in East Village Magazine’s November 2024 issue.
